Water Science and Engineering 2017, 10(2) 87-96 DOI:   http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2017.06.003  ISSN: 1674-2370 CN: 32-1785/TV

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Keywords
Water resources
Climate change
VIC model
Xiangjiang River Basin
Climate scenarios
Hydrological modeling
Authors
Guo-qing Wang
Jian-yun Zhang
Yue-ping Xu
Zhen-xin Bao
Xin-yue Yang
PubMed
Article by Guo-qing Wang
Article by Jian-yun Zhang
Article by Yue-ping Xu
Article by Zhen-xin Bao
Article by Xin-yue Yang

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Guo-qing Wang a,b, Jian-yun Zhang a,b,*, Yue-ping Xu c, Zhen-xin Bao a,b, Xin-yue Yang d

a State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
b Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China
c Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
d College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable
infiltration capacity (VIC) model and 14 general circulation models' (GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway
(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to
2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020s and increase in the 2030s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with
better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual
discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may
experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050
are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from -7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate
change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.

Keywords Water resources   Climate change   VIC model   Xiangjiang River Basin   Climate scenarios   Hydrological modeling  
Received 2017-01-02 Revised 2017-03-23 Online: 2017-04-30 
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2017.06.003
Fund:

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 41330854 and 41371063) and the National Key Research and Development Programs of China (Grants No. 2016YFA0601601 and 2016YFA0601501).

Corresponding Authors: jyzhang@nhri.cn (Jian-yun Zhang).
Email: jyzhang@nhri.cn
About author:

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